Assessment of risk and resiliency of unconventional fossil fuel energy infrastructures: a new analysis framework and mindset

ASSESSMENT OF RISK AND RESILIENCY OF UNCONVENTIONAL FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURES: A NEW ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK AND MINDSET

Adrian Gheorghe

Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA, adriangheorghe9145[AT]gmail.com

Sviatoslav Timashev

Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg

Science and Engineering Center «Reliability and Safety of Large Systems and Machines» of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ekaterinburg, timashevs[AT]gmail.com

Unconventional fossil fuel revolution that took place in the United States at the beginning of the 21st century has triggered an intense public debate regarding its environmental possible impacts. Fugitive methane emissions, groundwater pollution, and increased seismicity are suggested as fracking negative potential environmental impacts. The complex interdependent infrastructures which provide for the highly effective fracking technology are being expanding very fast, while conventional risk analysis frameworks such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) cannot cope with its requirements due to their high complexity and considerable lack of knowledge about their consequences. The question which rises is do we have a chance to assess those challenges or do we have to live with the fear of black swan events.

In the current study, authors aim at analyzing the unconventional fossil fuel industries in the United States as a complex sociotechnical system, which is required to be resilient in the market. Authors discuss on the necessity of developing new analytical and experimental frameworks which cope with the complex socio - technical requirements and are able to develop full groups of possible and plausible scenarios. We propose and review on a new agent-based modeling approach in the context of “System of Systems” theory as a suitable modeling framework, which makes us capable of simulating the complexity of behaviors of different decision makers and capture all types of interdependencies. We have focused on the concept of resiliency and its implications in the area of sociotechnical system as a new mindset toward analysis of systemic risks as related to interdependent critical infrastructures.

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